Return peak： big data gives a road map to the ＂epidemic＂
At the recent press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism in the State Council, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Transport predicted the situation of Spring Festival travel rush’s return trip:
"Through big data analysis, it is expected that passenger flow will stabilize and pick up around the 16th day of the first lunar month."
Although the peak of the Spring Festival return trip this year has been pushed back by the epidemic, with the return to work in various places, at present, large-scale population migration has been restarted.
According to big data, the cross-regional population flow in the second half of this year (January 30th to February 18th) in Spring Festival travel rush is about 142 million.
At present, in the face of this figure, how is the epidemic prevention and blocking war laid out? How to prevent the epidemic from spreading through public transport? Tan Zhu cooperated with the Big Data Team of Highway Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport and China Unicom Big Data Company, and tried to find some answers by analyzing 5.5 billion original data every day during the whole Spring Festival travel rush period.
The return trip this year is unusual.
This is the calculation chart of the cross-regional population flow in Spring Festival travel rush in 2020.
Generally speaking, the population flow in Spring Festival travel rush should be basically symmetrical, just like a clock.
This year, changes have occurred.
January 30th to February 18th is the second half of this year in Spring Festival travel rush. During these 20 days, the cross-regional population flow in China was about 142 million people.
From February 19th to March 15th, in these 25 days, the cross-regional population flow was about 145 million people.
According to big data calculation, compared with the concentration of population movement before the Spring Festival, the return trip was "leveled" and the return trip time was significantly lengthened.
What does this trend of population flow mean for the passenger transport system? According to a certain model, we calculated the return passenger volume this year.
In the second half of this year (January 30th-February 18th), the passenger traffic in Spring Festival travel rush was around 400 million, down about 70% year-on-year.
The peak value of passenger traffic also dropped significantly. Xiao Gaofeng will be formed during the 16th to 23rd of the first month, with an average of 17-23 million person-times per day.
According to the forecast, although the return passenger flow is reduced, there will still be about 433 million passengers in China from February 19 to March 15. This also means that in the next month, the return epidemic prevention work cannot be relaxed.
Traffic control has achieved initial results.
It is undoubtedly good news for epidemic prevention and control that the return passenger traffic has dropped significantly and there is no rush.
At present, the railway department has stopped more than 2,900 passenger trains, not only the trains originating from or arriving in Hubei, but also some trains on key lines such as Beijing-Tianjin Intercity, Beijing-Guangzhou, Shanghai-Kunming and Cheng Gui. From January 25 to February 5, the railway department introduced free refund measures five times, and a total of 60.588 million tickets were refunded from January 25 to February 3.
Sixteen provinces have completely suspended inter-provincial highway routes.
More than 13 million civil aviation refunds have been issued. Except Shennongjia Airport, all airports in Hubei Province have suspended transport flights, and other routes have reduced flights to varying degrees.
These measures are coordinated with the policy of extending the Spring Festival holiday and postponing the resumption of work. A set of combination boxing reduces the crowd density and releases more space for the returnees to travel in the wrong peak.
This is Tan Zhu’s time distribution based on the information of all trains that COVID-19 patients have taken since January 6th.
It can be seen that since January 24, the number of trains and planes with patients has dropped significantly. Especially from February 3rd to 5th, there were 23 passengers, 12 passengers and 7 passengers with fever on the national railway trains, which decreased to single digits in three days. From this point of view, the source of infection that moved some time ago has indeed decreased.
However, we are far from taking Spring Festival travel rush’s return trip lightly.
Which cities must guard against death?
The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee meeting of the Communist Party of China held on the 3rd pointed out:
"It is necessary to do a good job in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation after the Spring Festival, implement the responsibility of prevention and control of the inflow and outflow of personnel, and strengthen passenger health monitoring and disinfection and ventilation of vehicle stations."
Areas where the returning population is concentrated will face greater pressure.
According to Ctrip data, Guangzhou-Shenzhen, Harbin-Beijing, Chengdu-Guangzhou and Chengdu-Shanghai are the most popular return routes.
This also means that the four cities of North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will have the most rework crowds and the greatest epidemic prevention pressure. The air ticket data also confirms that the number of passengers sent to four cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the recent stage accounts for more than 36% of the country.
In cooperation with the Big Data Team of Highway Research Institute of the Ministry of Transport and China Unicom Big Data Company, we predicted the scale of return population flow in Spring Festival travel rush in 351 cities one by one (until March 15th).
The top ten cities are:
Guangzhou (11.79 million)
Beijing (9.85 million)
Zhengzhou (8.36 million)
Shanghai (8.17 million)
Xi ‘an (7.41 million)
Chengdu (7.37 million)
Foshan (6.83 million)
Shenzhen (6.27 million)
Suzhou (6.16 million)
Nanjing (6.08 million)
In addition, the floating population of Dongguan, Dazhou, Zhoukou, Wuxi, Xuzhou, Bijie, Luzhou, Yibin, Qingdao, Mianyang, Zhongshan, Xiamen and other cities are all above 3 million, which should not be underestimated.
CCTV news 1+1 program, National Health Commission expert group member Jiang Rongmeng tip:
"There may be an incubation period later. (From January 23rd) 6th is the first incubation period, and then 20th."
The new incubation period, coupled with large-scale personnel flow, will become a period of rapid increase of B-type population (people who have contact with patients) and the second-generation B-type population (people infected by B-type) if it is not properly prevented and controlled.
Master Tan must remind the above cities here: from now until mid-March, prepare for the worst and do your best.
The key lies in implementation
In the process of racing against time and fighting against the disease, we must send the returning army safely while resolutely curbing the spread of the epidemic.
This is a passenger information registration form that Tan Zhu received on the high-speed train back to Beijing. After arriving in Beijing, this information sheet was collected and kept by the railway department in a unified way, which is convenient for tracking the situation of every passenger.
This is just the tip of the joint prevention and control of railways. Master Tan asked the staff of Beijing Bureau, Zhengzhou Bureau and Chengdu Bureau of China Railway to sort out such a schematic diagram of the linkage process of finding suspected cases.
From entering and leaving the station for temperature measurement, to setting up observation stations and resident doctors, and then to sending highly suspected patients to the hospital in time, passenger information registration and follow-up investigation … … Such an epidemic prevention process needs the cooperation of railway departments, health and health commission, CDC and other forces, which are interlocking and can’t go wrong.
Today, this epidemic prevention process is being strictly implemented by 2775 railway stations across the country. As of 18: 00 on February 5th, there were 403 passenger trains and 489 passengers with fever.
Various departments and regions have stepped up measures to try to crack the epidemic pressure brought by the immigrant population.
The Ministry of Transport requires that the passenger load factor of national long-distance passenger buses and waterway passenger liners be controlled at 50% during Spring Festival travel rush. The passenger information registration system for road passenger transport has been launched, which is used to track passengers with COVID-19 patients.
Multi-class civil aviation has also started the seated mode, simplifying the service procedures, and eating in batches by neighboring seats on long-distance flights.
After the transportation system "ensures smooth flow, key points, services and safety", the places where people move in need to take over the baton of epidemic prevention and control.
At present, Hangzhou, Harbin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other places have begun to implement closed management of communities and units to prevent cross-infection.
Beijing and Shanghai have successively issued documents, clarifying that individuals who conceal their contact history will be strictly investigated for legal responsibility according to law and included in the social credit blacklist.
"Point-to-point, one-stop" transport of migrant workers back to their posts in all parts of Sichuan, and the government came forward to organize migrant workers to travel by car.
It is not easy to return to Spring Festival travel rush, China in 2020. It is a difficult problem for any country in the world to balance the "moving" and "not moving" between cutting off the transmission route of the epidemic and maintaining the normal operation of society.
How many points did you get? The key is to look at implementation.
A few days ago, I saw a netizen comment, and Tan felt that it was just the atmosphere of returning:
Not afraid of ten defenses and nine empty spaces! I hope ten defenses are nine empty!