Interpretation of three ＂hot words＂ on the national economy in January and February： stabilizing and rebounding consumption was given high hopes.

　　Beijing, March 16 (Reporter Jing Wong) Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Statistics Department, said at the press conference on the operation of the national economy in January and February held on the 15th that since the beginning of this year, with the rapid and smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, the effect of stabilizing the economy has continued to appear. From January to February, the overall economic operation showed a trend of stabilization and recovery, which was characterized by the recovery of production demand, the overall stability of employment prices, the gradual improvement of economic cycle, and the increasing vitality of market players.

　　Looking specifically at the "troika" that drives economic growth, the reporter is concerned that in terms of investment, the investment in public facilities management has increased by 11.2%. In addition, the consumer market has recovered, and the sales in rural markets have recovered better than those in cities and towns.

　　The State Council held a press conference on the operation of the national economy in January and February (Source: Guoxin. com)

　　Investment: The substantial growth of manufacturing industry lays a good foundation for increasing employment.

　　Since the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2022 reiterated "Two Unswervings", private economy and private enterprises have been frequently mentioned. This year’s "Government Work Report" also proposes to protect the property rights and entrepreneurs’ rights of private enterprises according to law, encourage and support the development of private economy and private enterprises, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and build pro-Qing political and business relations.

　　In terms of investment, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th showed that infrastructure investment increased by 9.0% year-on-year in January-February, among which investment in public facilities management increased by 11.2% and investment in railway transportation increased by 17.8%. Investment in manufacturing increased by 8.1%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply increased by 25.4%.

　　"In January and February, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 5,357.7 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the whole year of 2022. In terms of industries, the investment in the secondary industry increased by 10.1%. Originally, I thought that consumption should be the mainstay in January and February. I didn’t expect that under a series of policy blessings, the most beautiful thing was investment, and the most beautiful thing in investment was manufacturing. " Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of International Joint Business School of Zhejiang University, analyzed that the substantial growth of manufacturing industry reflects the economic confidence of ordinary people, and lays a good foundation for future economic development and employment.

　　In terms of real estate that has attracted much attention, Fu Linghui analyzed that this year, under the influence of a series of policies, with the economic warming, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market, mainly in the obvious narrowing of the decline in market sales.

　　Specifically, in January and February, the sales area of real estate decreased by 3.6%, which was significantly narrower than last year. Sales decreased by 0.1%, which also narrowed significantly. At the same time, real estate enterprises are also improving in terms of in-place funds and start-up investment. From January to February, investment in real estate development dropped by 5.7%, compared with a drop of 10% last year.

　　"From these situations, there have been some positive changes." On the whole, Fu Linghui said that the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Later, with the gradual improvement of the overall economy and the expected improvement of the market, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize.

　　Data Map: Chaoyang District, Beijing launched consumption promotion activities, and shopping malls created spring scenery to attract consumers.

　　Consumption: compared with last year, the economic growth has been significantly improved.

　　In order to promote economic growth in 2023, the recovery of consumption and even strong growth are highly anticipated. Fu Jiaqi, statistician of the Department of Trade and Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January and February, the market sales increased year-on-year, the consumption of contact and travel services picked up rapidly, the demand for upgraded consumption continued to be released, and new consumption patterns stimulated consumption vitality.

　　According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China in January and February was 7,706.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), up by 3.5% year-on-year, and decreased by 1.8% in December 2022. Fu Linghui said at the press conference of the State Council Office that the total retail sales of social consumer goods has changed from decline to increase, indicating that the vitality of market demand is picking up.

　　"The consumption performance in January and February is in line with expectations. In the coming months, the consumption trend should be greatly improved year-on-year, and the chain may drop slightly, because the Spring Festival tourism consumption in January and February has really boosted." However, Pan Helin also said that with the gradual expansion of domestic demand in policy, consumption will return to the stage of rapid growth after May.

　　When talking about the demand for economic growth this year, Fu Linghui also said that at present, the policy focus this year is to expand domestic demand. At present, on the whole, consumption will significantly improve and enhance the economic growth in 2023 compared with last year. The restraining factors of consumption are gradually eliminated. With the gradual recovery of employment and the growth of residents’ income, the pull of consumption on the whole economy will be obviously improved. At the same time, the pulling effect of investment on economic growth continues to show.

　　In 2023, many departments are also making efforts to promote consumption. Take the Ministry of Commerce as an example. On February 2, the Ministry of Commerce clearly defined 2023 as the "year of boosting consumption". It is proposed that according to the new situation this year, we should focus on key areas such as automobiles and home furnishing, and promote the introduction of a number of new policies to maximize the effectiveness of policies. Pan Helin also pointed out that the overall consumption data in January and February is still lower than the same period of the previous year, reflecting that domestic consumption expenditure is still in the recovery stage; From January to February, the retail sales of social goods deducted from automobile sales was 5%, reflecting that the fluctuation of automobile sales also disturbed consumer spending.

　　Fu Linghui said that this year’s policy focus is still to expand domestic demand. At present, from the perspective of the whole international environment, there are still many unstable, uncertain and unpredictable factors. In order to promote the stable development of the economy, we should focus on our own development and promote the expansion of domestic demand to stabilize economic growth.

　　Data Map: On March 10, 2023, the aerial photography of Haikou Port Container Terminal was a busy scene.

　　Export: there are challenges and many favorable conditions for foreign trade to promote stability and quality throughout the year.

　　In order to stabilize the basic market of foreign investment and foreign trade, the "Government Work Report" listed "attracting and utilizing foreign investment more vigorously" as one of the eight key suggestions of the government’s work this year, and "promoting stability and quality through import and export, and basically balancing the balance of payments" as the main expected goal of this year’s development.

　　In terms of import and export, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in January and February, the total import and export volume of goods was 6,176.8 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 3,493.6 billion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year, 9.6 percentage points lower than the annual growth rate in 2022; Imports were 2,683.3 billion yuan, down 2.9%, down 7.2 percentage points from the annual growth rate in 2022.

　　The data released on the website of the General Administration of Customs on March 7 also showed that in the first two months, the import and export growth to ASEAN declined to the EU, the United States and Japan. Among them, the total trade with ASEAN was 951.93 billion yuan, up 9.6%, accounting for 15.4% of the total foreign trade (the export to ASEAN increased by 17.9%), making it the largest trading partner. Exports to the EU, the second largest trading partner, reached 552.83 billion yuan, down 5%; Exports to the United States, the third largest trading partner, reached 494.11 billion yuan, down 15.2%. Exports to Japan, the fourth largest trading partner, reached 183.56 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; Imports reached 161.36 billion yuan, down 16.8%.

　　The global trade outlook report released by WTO in October 2022 predicts that the global trade volume of goods will only increase by 1% in 2023; In December 2022, the Global Trade Update issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that since the second half of 2022, the growth rate of global trade has begun to slow down, and the trend of slowing down trade growth in 2023 may continue.

　　Fu Linghui said that the external demand situation in 2023 is more severe than last year. Because the overall growth of the world economy has slowed down compared with last year, external demand may weaken. Recently, the manufacturing PMI of the United States and the euro zone is below the critical point, and the adjustment and change of external demand will inevitably have a certain impact on China’s import and export. Superimposed last year, the growth base was relatively high, and the total import and export volume in January and February decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, which is very difficult. "There are certain challenges in promoting the stability and quality of foreign trade throughout the year, but there are also many favorable conditions. On the whole, we are full of confidence in the development of foreign trade. " He said.