Why has the ＂Iran War＂ been repeated？
2007 seems destined to be the year of "Iran War". The prediction that the "Iran War" was about to break out many times in advance failed to come true, but until the end of the year, people were still asking: Will the United States launch the "Iran War" immediately? Even though the US intelligence department made it clear on December 3 that Iran had stopped its "nuclear weapons research program" four years ago, US President Bush still insisted that Iran was still dangerous and the possibility of launching a war against Iran could not be ruled out.
Profile picture: On November 2, 2006, in a military exercise held in the desert near Qom, a city in central Iran, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was testing the Meteor -3 medium-range missile. The Iranian military successfully test-fired a number of medium-range "Meteor -3" missiles in the military exercises that began that day. The missile range can cover the whole of Israel and the US military bases in the Middle East. Xinhua news agency
After the US intelligence department released the report on Iran’s nuclear issue, some analysts believed that the report "seriously damaged the credibility of the Bush administration, which has been preaching the Iran threat theory", and the reason for the Bush administration to launch an Iran war will no longer exist in the foreseeable future.
However, President Bush seems to have decided that he wants to wage this established "Iran War". On December 4th, Bush claimed that Iran still wanted to learn how to enrich uranium, and if Iran found such knowledge which could be used for secretly developing nuclear weapons program, it would definitely pose a threat to the security of the whole world. Bush’s statement reveals many mysteries. The most direct point is that the cloud of "Iran War" still exists.
The reason of "Iran War" still exists.
When the US government launched the war, it needed to solve one or some political problems that were difficult to solve by other means. This is what American officials have repeatedly stressed: war is the last choice.
So, what problems do Americans need to solve in Iran? Although people are constantly talking about the Iranian nuclear issue, in fact, the Iranian nuclear issue is only a superficial issue of the relationship between the United States and Iran, and it is not a direct problem of confrontation between the United States and Iran, let alone a direct reason for the "Iran war." What Americans constantly emphasize is that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, which threatens world security. Bush’s speech on the 4th also made it clear once again that the Bush administration is not concerned with the Iranian nuclear issue, but with the so-called Iranian threat.
On the Iraq issue, from the Gulf War in 1991 to the Iraq War in 2003, although there are different excuses and reasons, it is very clear to the US government that it is necessary to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq, which is "dangerous to American interests". In the 1991 Gulf War, the United States failed to overthrow Saddam Hussein by military means, but after more than 10 years of preparation, the United States finally solved this problem in 2003. Changing the color of the Iraqi regime is the real purpose of the US government.
In Iran, what the United States needs to solve is not whether Iran develops a nuclear program or not-the United States has always acquiesced, connived and even helped some countries develop nuclear weapons. The real concern of the United States for Iran is whether Iran, a country that runs counter to the United States ideologically, will pose a threat to American interests once it possesses nuclear weapons. Since the United States believes that Iran will pose a danger to the interests of the United States, then the US government must start to solve this problem. As with the Iraq issue, eliminating danger is fundamental for the United States on the Iran issue. With a basic understanding of the current Iranian regime, the United States can find various excuses to solve the Iranian issue.
According to the report of the US intelligence department, Iran terminated its nuclear weapons development program four years ago, and may not restart its nuclear weapons program so far. Even if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program, it will not be possible to build the first atomic bomb until 2015. This report seems to have eliminated Bush’s excuse to wage war, but at the same time, it has confirmed from the opposite side that the current Iranian government has a nuclear weapons program, and Iran’s leaders tried to make nuclear weapons, but they stopped after negotiations with the European Union.
As Bush said, as long as Iranians have ideas and plans to develop nuclear weapons and they can restart this plan at any time, then Iran still poses a threat to the interests of the United States. This reason is much more convincing than the one that triggered the Gulf War when Saddam invaded Kuwait.
Are the conditions ripe for war?
In 2007, the world media repeatedly broke the news that the "Iran War" was about to break out, even a specific date was clearly stated, but in the end there was no movement in the White House and there was no explosion in Iran. In order to launch a war, the American government needs a well-known reason and a relatively suitable condition with the right time, place and people.
At present, a large number of American troops are still trapped in the quagmire of Iraq; The voice of anti-war in the United States is very strong; The United States is about to face the re-election of the government, and the Bush administration, whose two terms are about to expire, has to leave the White House. More importantly, have the American oil and arms groups already felt the need to wage a war? Is it appropriate to start a war now? After all, there are natural differences between today’s Iran and 2003′ s Iraq, and these are issues that cannot be ignored by the United States.
Iran is a unified country, while Iraq was a country that was actually divided for many years. After the Gulf War in 1991, the western allies led by the United States set up a so-called no-fly zone in the north and south of Iraq. As a result, the Kurds in the north of 36th latitude in Iraq achieved autonomy, and the Shia Arabs in the south of 32nd latitude also achieved semi-autonomy. Politically and militarily, Saddam actually controlled only a narrow area between 32 and 36 degrees north latitude before the Iraq war in 2003, including the vast desert area in the west. Iran, on the other hand, not only does not have the problem of territorial division, but also has been in a unified state for a long time. Most of the opponents and dissidents who support the West have fled abroad and cannot pose a direct threat to the Iranian regime.
Another more sensitive and realistic problem is that Iran is a country that implements the system of integration of politics and religion. Unlike Iraq, where Sunni Arabs, a minority population, are in a dominant position due to historical reasons, Shiite Arabs and Kurds have been engaged in the struggle against the Baghdad regime for a long time, and ethnic contradictions and sectarian contradictions are intertwined, greatly weakening their national strength. In terms of population, Persians and Azerbaijanis play a leading role in Iran, accounting for the absolute majority of the population; In terms of sects, Shiite Muslims account for more than 90% of the total population. This distribution of ethnic groups and sects has greatly reduced domestic contradictions, making Iran often shelve internal contradictions and be consistent with foreign countries when facing foreign invasion.
However, Iran’s political and religious integration system has given the Iranian regime strong religious support, and the influence of religious forces in the political field has made the "Iran War" in danger of turning into a "religious war".
Repeat the way of Iraq
Looking back on the course from the Gulf War in 1991 to the Iraq War in 2003, it is not difficult to see that with the continuous strengthening of political and economic sanctions by the United Nations and the United States, Iraq has moved from an oil-rich country to a weak country, and has become fragmented. Obviously, the United States has repeatedly threatened the military this year, and it has been constantly reported that the Pentagon has drawn up a plan for the "Iran War" and prepared for the war. The so-called "war means are not excluded", and this "wolf is coming" signal is nothing more than paving the way for the future "Iran War".
However, if the United States wants to launch the Iran war, it must also solve several important problems:
First, greatly weaken Iran’s national strength. Isolating and sanctioning Iran is a soft knife to weaken Iran’s comprehensive national strength. The unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States have hindered Iran’s development for more than 20 years. In recent years, the United States has pushed the United Nations to impose sanctions on Iran, which is bound to further greatly weaken Iran’s national strength, especially declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization", which will help the United States to further contain Iran.
Second, disrupt Iran’s domestic stability. Iran’s current regime is basically stable. Although there have been factional disputes in Iran’s political arena for a long time, the United States once hoped that a certain faction would disrupt the foundation of Iran’s political arena. However, in order to wage war and eventually overthrow Iran’s current regime, the United States still needs to further intensify internal contradictions in Iran, and even promote ethnic and sectarian contradictions that have existed in Iran’s domestic history, so as to make Iran fall into a fragmented situation.
Third, find the way to the lowest loss. Iran, after all, is holding the world’s energy throat, the Strait of Hormuz. If we control this oil channel before the outbreak of the Iran war, it is bound to be an issue that the United States needs to consider to ensure that the energy supply of the United States and even the world will not be greatly affected and that the world economy will not be plunged.
It can be predicted that the drama of "Iran War" unfinished in 2007 will continue in 2008. Although American intelligence has confirmed that Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons research and development program, the United States will continue to push the international community to impose stricter sanctions on Iran and will continue to create news such as "Iran War is about to break out". (Rong Song)
Editor: Li Xiuwei