Affected by soybean oil and palm oil, cotton oil is weak and difficult to change.

Source: Grain and Oil Market News Zhang Jiangbo

　　The prices of peripheral soybean oil and palm oil continued to fall, and the cotton oil market was negative. Coupled with the sluggish demand, the spot of cotton oil continued to decline. At present, the price of cotton oil in some areas is around 5980 yuan/ton in Hebei, 5830 yuan/ton in Shandong, 5900 yuan/ton in Henan, 5650 ~ 5920 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shaanxi, and 4870 yuan/ton in southern Xinjiang.

　　The mainstream price of first-class soybean oil in domestic port areas is 6250 ~ 6400 yuan/ton, which is 20 ~ 120 yuan/ton lower than last week. At present, the price difference is 420 ~ 570 yuan/ton compared with cotton oil in Shandong. The price of 24-degree palm oil is 5550 ~ 5680 yuan/ton, which is 20 ~ 80 yuan/ton lower than last week, and the price difference with the third-grade cotton oil is not big.

　　The ex-factory price of domestic fourth-grade vegetable oil in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is stable at 8,000 ~ 8,200 yuan/ton, down by 100 ~ 150 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of fourth-grade vegetable oil pressed by imported rapeseed in coastal areas is 6,150 ~ 6,200 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week. The decline of bulk oils continues, dragging down the cotton oil market.

　　Up to now, the total domestic commercial stock of soybean oil has reached 1,279,700 tons, an increase of 1.37% compared with 1,262,350 tons in the same period last week, and an increase of 316,100 tons or 32.8% compared with the same period last year. The total inventory of palm oil in ports nationwide reached 1.089 million tons, and the national reserve of vegetable oil also reached 5 million tons. The overall supply of oil exceeds demand, and the buyer’s confidence in the market outlook is still not optimistic, and the wait-and-see mood is increasing.

　　Therefore, under the background of negative market fundamentals, cotton oil is weak and difficult to change, or it will continue to follow the steady decline of oil and fat. However, with the high cost of cottonseed, there is little room for cotton oil to continue to fall. Since late July to mid-August is the key filling period for soybean growth in the United States, the market expects weather speculation. If the US market picks up in August, the cotton oil market may be expected to pick up moderately.

　　Cotton meal: the advantage of cost performance is no longer obvious.

　　The oil price difference between soybean meal and cotton has narrowed, and the price drop of rapeseed meal has also been negative for cotton meal, and the spot price has continued to decline. At present, the price of cottonseed meal in some areas is around 3070 yuan/ton for 40% protein in Hebei, 3010 yuan/ton for 40% protein in Shandong, 2980 yuan/ton for 40% protein in Henan, 3070-3200 yuan/ton for 40% protein in Shanxi and Shaanxi, and 2820 yuan/ton for 42% protein in southern Xinjiang.

　　Since the beginning of this week, the spot soybean meal has fallen with the market.

　　There is a small rebound in some areas, but the rebound strength is still limited. At present, the spot price of soybean meal is still at a low level of 3500 ~ 3580 yuan/ton, and the price difference with 40% protein cottonseed meal is around 600 yuan/ton, which is far lower than the average level of 1000 yuan/ton, and the price difference with 46% protein cottonseed meal is only 100 yuan/ton, so the cost performance disadvantage is still obvious, which leads some feed factories to modify the formula one after another and reduce the consumption of cottonseed meal.

　　As of July 23rd, the ex-factory quotation of rapeseed meal in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was concentrated at 2,980-3,100 yuan/ton, and the contracted pre-sale price of rapeseed meal squeezed by imported rapeseed from coastal factories was 2,900-3,100 yuan/ton, which was 30-3 100 yuan/ton lower than last week. The spot price of rapeseed meal also continued to decline, and the market wait-and-see mood increased, which led to the decline of cotton meal price this week.

　　In addition, the recent strong winds and heavy rains in the south have brought certain threats to the domestic aquaculture industry, with slow shipment of cottonseed meal and increased inventory. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that short-term cottonseed meal will continue to decline due to weak demand, but the expected US soybean speculation in August and the low domestic cottonseed meal output will bring some support to cottonseed meal. The market outlook pays attention to the guidance of soybean meal price trend to the market.

?